Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.75 – 71.22

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 99.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 88.3 ±19.7

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX -Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 5.43Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 7.14Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.6 ±17.4

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 34.84Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 19.81Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9574Rock Bots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 16.57Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6508, 9433, 9189

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6508, 9433, 9189

Auto

7.1 26%

Teleop

13.4 50%

Endgame

6.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5584, 4729, 9574

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5584, 4729, 9574

Auto

9.6 14%

Teleop

33.7 50%

Endgame

24.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score26.7pts

Blue projected score71.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.5
Score range: 12–86
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 85.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

88.3Season APEX308.6

2.9Auto9.6

6.3Teleop33.7

3.4Endgame24.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	25
teleop	17	136
endgame	13	96
foul	5	5
total	35	262

Result

Final score

35 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 99.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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