Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.6 – 48.51

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.4 ±19.6

8844Flamethrowers

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 13.74Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 39.43Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 35.43Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.3 ±20.2

10958SWing

Provisional

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 20.29Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6432Valkyries

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 14.03Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX -Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8844, 6083, 9146

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8844, 6083, 9146

Auto

13.8 16%

Teleop

40.6 48%

Endgame

29.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10958, 6432, 5648

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10958, 6432, 5648

Auto

9.9 22%

Teleop

24.8 56%

Endgame

9.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.6pts

Blue projected score48.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.1
Score range: 34–104
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 85.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.4Season APEX133.3

13.8Auto5.7

40.6Teleop17.7

29.8Endgame6.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	11
teleop	82	18
endgame	30	10
foul	0	0
total	130	39

Result

Final score

130 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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