Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.93 – 174.31

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.7 ±15.8

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 28.03Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 93.53Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 188.37Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±15.7

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 30.44Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 79.09Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 64.78Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10552, 8613, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10552, 8613, 5584

Auto

56.9 20%

Teleop

168.8 60%

Endgame

57.8 20%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4774, 6510, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4774, 6510, 6996

Auto

34.3 21%

Teleop

88.1 54%

Endgame

40.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score309.9pts

Blue projected score174.3pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.6
Score range: 153–331
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.7Season APEX402.9

56.9Auto34.3

168.8Teleop88.1

57.8Endgame40.8

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	51
teleop	99	73
endgame	54	50
foul	5	25
total	249	199

Result

Final score

249 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

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