Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.46 – 181.58

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

365 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.7 ±15.8

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 90.6Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 185.07Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 24.79Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±15.7

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 33.48Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 81.61Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 66.49Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8613, 5584, 10552

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8613, 5584, 10552

Auto

53.5 20%

Teleop

160.3 59%

Endgame

56.7 21%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4774, 6510, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4774, 6510, 6996

Auto

34.8 21%

Teleop

94.5 56%

Endgame

39.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score300.5pts

Blue projected score181.6pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.9
Score range: 161–321
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.7Season APEX402.9

53.5Auto34.8

160.3Teleop94.5

56.7Endgame39.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	32
teleop	218	43
endgame	65	48
foul	5	0
total	365	123

Result

Final score

365 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 pts

Match videos

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