Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.65 – 49.56

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±42

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.22Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 104.81Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 93.62Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126 ±19.2

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 14.86Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 9.74Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 24.96Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9988, 10002, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.7 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 10002, 5584

Auto

31.0 15%

Teleop

125.2 60%

Endgame

53.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5331, 6434, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5331, 6434, 4729

Auto

16.9 40%

Teleop

17.5 41%

Endgame

8.1 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score213.7pts

Blue projected score49.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 164.1
Score range: 20–244
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 166.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.5Season APEX126

31Auto16.9

125.2Teleop17.5

53.7Endgame8.1

0Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	23
teleop	169	31
endgame	61	10
foul	90	0
total	359	64

Result

Final score

359 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 pts