Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

418.48 – 194.25

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

354 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 87.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.4 ±41.6

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 137.61Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 256.31Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.56Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±42

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 8.8Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 98.41Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 87.04Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6510, 4613, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.5 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6510, 4613, 9992

Auto

76.3 19%

Teleop

240.6 58%

Endgame

95.3 23%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9988, 10002, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 10002, 5584

Auto

27.4 14%

Teleop

110.7 58%

Endgame

52.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score418.5pts

Blue projected score194.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 224.2
Score range: 165–447
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 658 vs event baseline 163.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.4Season APEX385.5

76.3Auto27.4

240.6Teleop110.7

95.3Endgame52.4

7Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	51
teleop	176	191
endgame	89	57
foul	0	5
total	354	304

Result

Final score

354 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 87.1 pts