Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.22 – 84.17

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

39 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126 ±19.2

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 14.89Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 10.44Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 25.89Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.1 ±42.9

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 29.49Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 29.04Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 25.64Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5331, 6434, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5331, 6434, 4729

Auto

17.8 40%

Teleop

20.5 46%

Endgame

6.3 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9147, 9983, 7433

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.2 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9147, 9983, 7433

Auto

26.5 34%

Teleop

35.7 46%

Endgame

16.2 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score51.2pts

Blue projected score84.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.9
Score range: 21–114
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 67 vs event baseline 165.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126Season APEX148.1

17.8Auto26.5

20.5Teleop35.7

6.3Endgame16.2

62Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	8
teleop	2	12
endgame	12	8
foul	10	0
total	39	28

Result

Final score

39 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 34.2 pts