Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.68 – 217.12

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 21.6 ±57.4

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 28.78Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.76Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.14Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.7 ±16.7

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 102.26Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 14.7Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 100.16Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4774, 9984, 9987

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.7 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4774, 9984, 9987

Auto

14.9 29%

Teleop

21.6 43%

Endgame

14.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3132, 6476, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.1 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3132, 6476, 6497

Auto

52.3 24%

Teleop

121.4 56%

Endgame

42.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score54.7pts

Blue projected score217.1pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -162.4
Score range: 25–247
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 165.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

21.6Season APEX336.7

14.9Auto52.3

21.6Teleop121.4

14.1Endgame42.9

9Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	73
teleop	17	140
endgame	23	72
foul	0	0
total	56	285

Result

Final score

56 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts