Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.4 – 83.42

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125 ±18.5

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 32.28Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 51.61Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 34.51Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.1 ±42.9

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 29.27Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 28.79Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 25.36Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10437, 6508, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.4 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10437, 6508, 4739

Auto

13.1 11%

Teleop

61.6 53%

Endgame

42.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9147, 9983, 7433

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9147, 9983, 7433

Auto

28.6 37%

Teleop

29.1 38%

Endgame

19.7 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score118.4pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35
Score range: 53–148
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 166.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125Season APEX148.1

13.1Auto28.6

61.6Teleop29.1

42Endgame19.7

13Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	23
teleop	36	57
endgame	50	8
foul	0	5
total	123	93

Result

Final score

123 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 pts