Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.68 – 50.66

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.3 ±42.1

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 5.97Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 157.66Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 101.05Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126 ±19.2

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 14.84Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 10.35Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 25.47Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5876, 8613, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 8613, 9986

Auto

48.8 20%

Teleop

149.4 60%

Endgame

51.7 21%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5331, 6434, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5331, 6434, 4729

Auto

18.4 43%

Teleop

21.4 50%

Endgame

2.7 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score264.7pts

Blue projected score50.7pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 214
Score range: 21–295
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 167.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.3Season APEX126

48.8Auto18.4

149.4Teleop21.4

51.7Endgame2.7

0Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	17
teleop	120	19
endgame	32	18
foul	0	0
total	204	54

Result

Final score

204 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts