Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.96 – 168.64

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

247 – 284

Prediction missed · off by 76.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.7 ±16.7

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 100.09Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 12.59Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 96.28Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±42

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 90.02Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.56Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 78.06Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3132, 6476, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

209 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3132, 6476, 6497

Auto

52.3 25%

Teleop

114.3 55%

Endgame

42.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10002, 9988, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9988, 5584

Auto

28.7 17%

Teleop

101.0 61%

Endgame

34.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score209pts

Blue projected score168.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.3
Score range: 139–239
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 531 vs event baseline 165.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.7Season APEX385.5

52.3Auto28.7

114.3Teleop101

42.4Endgame34.6

49Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	21
teleop	148	145
endgame	45	118
foul	0	0
total	247	284

Result

Final score

247 – 284

Prediction missed · off by 76.7 pts