Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.19 – 59.45

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

410 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.4 ±41.6

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 257.57Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 137.38Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.24Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 21.6 ±57.4

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 29.48Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.85Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.12Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4613, 6510, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.2 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4613, 6510, 9992

Auto

75.2 18%

Teleop

244.0 59%

Endgame

95.1 23%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4774, 9987, 9984

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4774, 9987, 9984

Auto

15.2 28%

Teleop

24.5 45%

Endgame

15.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score421.2pts

Blue projected score59.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 361.7
Score range: 29–451
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 163.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.4Season APEX21.6

75.2Auto15.2

244Teleop24.5

95.1Endgame15.2

4Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	15
teleop	225	15
endgame	102	19
foul	0	0
total	410	49

Result

Final score

410 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts