Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.73 – 239.57

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.3 ±42.1

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 3.5Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 155.77Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 103.46Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±42

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.93Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 113.29Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 102.35Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5876, 8613, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 8613, 9986

Auto

53.6 22%

Teleop

149.3 61%

Endgame

41.4 17%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9988, 10002, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 10002, 5584

Auto

34.0 15%

Teleop

137.2 61%

Endgame

53.5 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score262.7pts

Blue projected score239.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.2
Score range: 209–294
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 171.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.3Season APEX385.5

53.6Auto34

149.3Teleop137.2

41.4Endgame53.5

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	30
teleop	137	37
endgame	74	46
foul	30	45
total	317	158

Result

Final score

317 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 pts