Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.53 – 235.05

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

262 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.7 ±16.7

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 104.99Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 14.5Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 106.04Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±42

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.48Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 111.74Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 100.83Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3132, 6476, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3132, 6476, 6497

Auto

57.5 26%

Teleop

120.0 54%

Endgame

44.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9988, 10002, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 10002, 5584

Auto

32.3 15%

Teleop

131.6 60%

Endgame

54.8 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score225.5pts

Blue projected score235.1pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.5
Score range: 195–266
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 169.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.7Season APEX385.5

57.5Auto32.3

120Teleop131.6

44.4Endgame54.8

36Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	46
teleop	148	176
endgame	38	44
foul	5	5
total	262	271

Result

Final score

262 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts