Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

406.22 – 262.11

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

423 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.4 ±41.6

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.39Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 250.14Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 134.69Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.3 ±42.1

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 3.42Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 155.68Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 103.01Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 4613, 6510

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.2 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 4613, 6510

Auto

77.2 19%

Teleop

229.6 57%

Endgame

95.6 24%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5876, 8613, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.1 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 8613, 9986

Auto

53.1 22%

Teleop

148.4 61%

Endgame

43.1 18%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score406.2pts

Blue projected score262.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.1
Score range: 232–436
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 695 vs event baseline 166.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.4Season APEX347.3

77.2Auto53.1

229.6Teleop148.4

95.6Endgame43.1

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	55
teleop	250	160
endgame	120	32
foul	15	25
total	423	272

Result

Final score

423 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 pts