Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.11 – 228.39

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125 ±18.5

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 28.82Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 48.52Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 30.77Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.7 ±16.7

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 106.12Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 15.57Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 106.7Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10437, 6508, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.1 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10437, 6508, 4739

Auto

19.8 18%

Teleop

50.6 47%

Endgame

37.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3132, 6476, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3132, 6476, 6497

Auto

55.1 24%

Teleop

125.0 55%

Endgame

48.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score108.1pts

Blue projected score228.4pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.3
Score range: 78–258
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 167.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125Season APEX336.7

19.8Auto55.1

50.6Teleop125

37.2Endgame48.7

12Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	71
teleop	18	89
endgame	25	17
foul	0	30
total	70	207

Result

Final score

70 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts