Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.91 – 120.58

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 73 ±42.9

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.29Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 25.36Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 28.26Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.7 ±41.7

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.3Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 25.36Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 67.92Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 6434, 6508

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 6434, 6508

Auto

16.8 32%

Teleop

18.3 35%

Endgame

17.6 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9983, 6497, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9983, 6497, 4739

Auto

10.3 10%

Teleop

70.6 67%

Endgame

24.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score53.9pts

Blue projected score120.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.7
Score range: 22–153
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 175.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

73Season APEX253.7

16.8Auto10.3

18.3Teleop70.6

17.6Endgame24.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	37
teleop	66	94
endgame	6	49
foul	0	0
total	81	180

Result

Final score

81 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable