Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.96 – 88.26

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 106.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 65.5 ±43.5

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 37.51Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -3.2Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 33.65Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.3 ±41.6

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 53.95Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -3.2Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 37.51Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5331, 9988, 10437

/ 100 compat

Projected

68 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5331, 9988, 10437

Auto

5.9 9%

Teleop

43.2 68%

Endgame

14.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6510, 9987, 10002

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6510, 9987, 10002

Auto

10.7 14%

Teleop

52.9 71%

Endgame

11.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score68pts

Blue projected score88.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.3
Score range: 36–120
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 175.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

65.5Season APEX488.3

5.9Auto10.7

43.2Teleop52.9

14.9Endgame11.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	69
teleop	25	171
endgame	12	47
foul	0	0
total	54	287

Result

Final score

54 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 106.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable