Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.07 – 173.61

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 59.8 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.7 ±19.1

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 5.02Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 51.19Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 6.86Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.9 ±42.4

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 52Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 51.19Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 70.42Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6476, 3132, 9147

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6476, 3132, 9147

Auto

6.2 9%

Teleop

44.6 63%

Endgame

19.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4729, 7433, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.6 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4729, 7433, 9986

Auto

21.3 13%

Teleop

104.2 63%

Endgame

38.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score63.1pts

Blue projected score173.6pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.5
Score range: 31–206
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 180.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.7Season APEX182.9

6.2Auto21.3

44.6Teleop104.2

19.6Endgame38.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	35
teleop	87	50
endgame	37	58
foul	0	0
total	152	143

Result

Final score

152 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable