Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.06 – 508.24

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 591

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 21.6 ±57.4

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.68Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 29.81Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

9981Off-Season Demo Team 9981

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.57Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 806.7 ±14.6

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 247.51Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 98.98Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 161.75Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9984, 4774, 9981

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.1 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9984, 4774, 9981

Auto

10.7 28%

Teleop

15.4 40%

Endgame

12.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4613, 5584, 8613

/ 100 compat

Projected

508.2 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4613, 5584, 8613

Auto

79.9 16%

Teleop

300.8 60%

Endgame

116.7 23%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.51 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score45.1pts

Blue projected score508.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -463.2
Score range: 13–540
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 177.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

21.6Season APEX806.7

10.7Auto79.9

15.4Teleop300.8

12.4Endgame116.7

16Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	103
teleop	9	331
endgame	8	127
foul	0	30
total	29	591

Result

Final score

29 – 591

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable