Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.1 – 167.41

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316 ±42

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 25.21Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.47Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 251.42Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 65.9 ±57.8

9981Off-Season Demo Team 9981

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.72Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 32.81Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 110.88Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4774, 9992, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.1 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4774, 9992, 4613

Auto

46.0 16%

Teleop

173.9 59%

Endgame

73.0 25%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9981, 7583, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.4 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9981, 7583, 9986

Auto

21.4 14%

Teleop

82.4 54%

Endgame

48.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score296.1pts

Blue projected score167.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.7
Score range: 138–325
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316Season APEX65.9

46Auto21.4

173.9Teleop82.4

73Endgame48.8

16Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	12
teleop	187	37
endgame	97	26
foul	5	0
total	360	75

Result

Final score

360 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable