Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.99 – 50.1

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.2 ±42.5

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 15.55Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 110.39Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9975Off-Season Demo Team 9975

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.05Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 91.1 ±43.2

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 9.43Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 18.75Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 21.92Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5331, 10002, 9975

/ 100 compat

Projected

133 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5331, 10002, 9975

Auto

24.4 20%

Teleop

74.5 62%

Endgame

21.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5876, 9992, 7583

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 9992, 7583

Auto

25.0 54%

Teleop

18.0 39%

Endgame

3.4 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score133pts

Blue projected score50.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.9
Score range: 18–165
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 177.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.2Season APEX91.1

24.4Auto25

74.5Teleop18

21.8Endgame3.4

55Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	13
teleop	90	18
endgame	19	11
foul	15	0
total	148	42

Result

Final score

148 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable