Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.97 – 152.38

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

33 – 17

Prediction missed · off by 79.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 89.8 ±42.7

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.84Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 26.18Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 15.95Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.2 ±42.7

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 38.34Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 91.42Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9975Off-Season Demo Team 9975

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.62Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9987, 4729, 5331

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9987, 4729, 5331

Auto

7.4 16%

Teleop

30.9 68%

Endgame

7.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7433, 5584, 9975

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.4 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7433, 5584, 9975

Auto

28.9 19%

Teleop

72.8 48%

Endgame

48.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score56pts

Blue projected score152.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.4
Score range: 26–182
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 50 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

89.8Season APEX306.2

7.4Auto28.9

30.9Teleop72.8

7.3Endgame48.6

51Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	4
teleop	11	10
endgame	4	3
foul	0	0
total	33	17

Result

Final score

33 – 17

Prediction missed · off by 79.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable