Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.8 – 254.79

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.2 ±42.5

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 84.41Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -2.28Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 26.67Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.1 ±42.5

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 0.41Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 111.93Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 142.45Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10002, 9988, 7583

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.8 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9988, 7583

Auto

23.0 23%

Teleop

63.1 63%

Endgame

14.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6476, 9986, 6510

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.8 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6476, 9986, 6510

Auto

36.1 15%

Teleop

143.8 60%

Endgame

60.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score108.8pts

Blue projected score254.8pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146
Score range: 79–285
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 165.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.2Season APEX289.1

23Auto36.1

63.1Teleop143.8

14.4Endgame60.6

2Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	39
teleop	69	124
endgame	41	65
foul	0	0
total	137	228

Result

Final score

137 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable