Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.58 – 212.51

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 61 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.6 ±17.5

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 244.29Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 31.19Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 30.1Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.8 ±16

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 107.81Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 91.24Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 13.46Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4613, 10437, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.6 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4613, 10437, 4739

Auto

48.6 16%

Teleop

191.6 62%

Endgame

67.1 22%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3132, 6497, 5876

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.5 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3132, 6497, 5876

Auto

59.1 28%

Teleop

105.1 50%

Endgame

44.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score305.6pts

Blue projected score212.5pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.1
Score range: 184–335
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 475 vs event baseline 163.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.6Season APEX365.8

48.6Auto59.1

191.6Teleop105.1

67.1Endgame44.4

41Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	79
teleop	143	51
endgame	132	0
foul	15	0
total	345	130

Result

Final score

345 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable