Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.81 – 75.97

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 74.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.2 ±41.8

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 75.21Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9981Off-Season Demo Team 9981

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.92Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 14.68Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 87.5 ±42.9

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 30.17Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 22.48Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 23.32Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10002, 9981, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.8 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9981, 4729

Auto

13.2 14%

Teleop

61.3 64%

Endgame

21.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9983, 7583, 4774

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9983, 7583, 4774

Auto

11.2 14%

Teleop

39.3 51%

Endgame

27.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score102.8pts

Blue projected score76pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.8
Score range: 46–133
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 165.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.2Season APEX87.5

13.2Auto11.2

61.3Teleop39.3

21.9Endgame27.1

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	26
teleop	103	37
endgame	23	9
foul	75	35
total	221	107

Result

Final score

221 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 74.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable