Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.57 – 76.73

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.7 ±42.2

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 80.61Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 25.58Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 103.38Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 45.6 ±57.4

9975Off-Season Demo Team 9975

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.1Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.91Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 34.72Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6497, 10437, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.6 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6497, 10437, 9986

Auto

48.9 25%

Teleop

90.9 47%

Endgame

55.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9975, 9987, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9975, 9987, 4739

Auto

9.6 14%

Teleop

40.9 62%

Endgame

15.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score209.6pts

Blue projected score76.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.8
Score range: 47–240
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 164.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.7Season APEX45.6

48.9Auto9.6

90.9Teleop40.9

55.4Endgame15.8

1Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	10
teleop	158	34
endgame	88	28
foul	5	0
total	302	72

Result

Final score

302 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable