Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.8 – 66.84

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

74 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 8.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 22.9 ±57.8

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.03Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9981Off-Season Demo Team 9981

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.97Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 15.8Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 74.7 ±43.2

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 38.42Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.43Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 25.99Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9983, 9981, 5331

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9983, 9981, 5331

Auto

12.4 21%

Teleop

33.7 58%

Endgame

11.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9147, 9984, 10437

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9147, 9984, 10437

Auto

29.0 43%

Teleop

24.3 36%

Endgame

14.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score58.8pts

Blue projected score66.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8
Score range: 30–96
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 163.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

22.9Season APEX74.7

12.4Auto29

33.7Teleop24.3

11.8Endgame14

72Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	23
teleop	33	25
endgame	19	6
foul	0	15
total	74	69

Result

Final score

74 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 8.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable