Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.04 – 181.23

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 32.1 ±57.6

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.94Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 25.37Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.73Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.9 ±41.8

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 24.92Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.79Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 131.52Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9987, 9147, 9988

/ 100 compat

Projected

67 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9987, 9147, 9988

Auto

19.3 29%

Teleop

34.5 51%

Endgame

13.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4729, 9983, 6510

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.2 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4729, 9983, 6510

Auto

28.7 18%

Teleop

94.7 59%

Endgame

38.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score67pts

Blue projected score181.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.2
Score range: 35–213
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 177.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

32.1Season APEX359.9

19.3Auto28.7

34.5Teleop94.7

13.9Endgame38.2

0Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	34
teleop	11	82
endgame	8	36
foul	0	30
total	24	182

Result

Final score

24 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable