Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.09 – 158.09

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 25.2 ±57.6

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 102.79Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9975Off-Season Demo Team 9975

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.29Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 20.01Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.7 ±16

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 84.67Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 45.08Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 28.34Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9986, 9975, 5876

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9986, 9975, 5876

Auto

31.9 23%

Teleop

58.1 41%

Endgame

51.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6497, 7433, 4774

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6497, 7433, 4774

Auto

45.4 29%

Teleop

67.5 43%

Endgame

42.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score150.1pts

Blue projected score158.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8
Score range: 120–188
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 164.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

25.2Season APEX345.7

31.9Auto45.4

58.1Teleop67.5

51.7Endgame42.7

1Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	25
teleop	58	54
endgame	20	46
foul	50	0
total	155	125

Result

Final score

155 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable