Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.65 – 214.93

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 332

Prediction missed · off by 145.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.8 ±17.1

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 53.84Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 182.38Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 20.43Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±41.8

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -20.36Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 236.11Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX -0.82Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4739, 8613, 6476

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4739, 8613, 6476

Auto

38.3 16%

Teleop

164.9 68%

Endgame

39.9 16%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9988, 4613, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.9 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 4613, 4729

Auto

40.4 20%

Teleop

112.7 55%

Endgame

51.8 25%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score256.7pts

Blue projected score214.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.7
Score range: 186–286
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 163.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.8Season APEX361.3

38.3Auto40.4

164.9Teleop112.7

39.9Endgame51.8

104Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	47
teleop	71	215
endgame	5	60
foul	5	10
total	83	332

Result

Final score

83 – 332

Prediction missed · off by 145.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable