Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.52 – 177.6

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

268 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 75.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.7 ±17.5

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 17.48Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 58.37Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 134.67Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.7 ±42.4

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.26Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 93.45Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 76.89Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7583, 6508, 6510

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7583, 6508, 6510

Auto

37.6 18%

Teleop

123.5 60%

Endgame

45.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9987, 3132, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9987, 3132, 5584

Auto

29.9 17%

Teleop

106.3 59%

Endgame

43.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score210.5pts

Blue projected score177.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.9
Score range: 149–240
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 160.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.7Season APEX322.7

37.6Auto29.9

123.5Teleop106.3

45.7Endgame43.5

27Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	41
teleop	138	151
endgame	79	75
foul	10	5
total	268	272

Result

Final score

268 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 75.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable