Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.85 – 96.13

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 81.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.4 ±42.9

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 101.35Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.26Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 24.24Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.2 ±42.2

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 0.09Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 83.67Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.37Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3132, 9984, 7583

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.9 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3132, 9984, 7583

Auto

38.7 31%

Teleop

59.2 47%

Endgame

27.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6476, 6497, 9987

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6476, 6497, 9987

Auto

26.4 28%

Teleop

45.7 48%

Endgame

22.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score127.9pts

Blue projected score96.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.7
Score range: 67–157
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 163.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.4Season APEX204.2

38.7Auto26.4

59.2Teleop45.7

27.2Endgame22.7

33Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	46
teleop	67	151
endgame	35	40
foul	5	0
total	150	237

Result

Final score

150 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 81.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable