Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.28 – 82.22

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±57.4

9981Off-Season Demo Team 9981

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.35Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.08Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 74.85Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.1 ±19.6

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 14.29Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 23.58Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 44.35Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9981, 9992, 5584

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9981, 9992, 5584

Auto

24.2 25%

Teleop

46.2 48%

Endgame

26.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5331, 5876, 7433

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.2 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5331, 5876, 7433

Auto

25.0 30%

Teleop

52.3 63%

Endgame

5.9 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score103.3pts

Blue projected score82.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.1
Score range: 53–132
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 160.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.2Season APEX164.1

24.2Auto25

46.2Teleop52.3

26.7Endgame5.9

0Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	36
teleop	52	35
endgame	7	6
foul	0	0
total	70	77

Result

Final score

70 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 19.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable