Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.13 – 93.53

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 57.8 ±42.9

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 24.71Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 8.39Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 6.03Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 38.7 ±43.5

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 33.83Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 28.07Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 31.63Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4774, 6434, 9987

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4774, 6434, 9987

Auto

5.5 15%

Teleop

33.4 89%

Endgame

-1.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10437, 6476, 9983

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10437, 6476, 9983

Auto

18.1 21%

Teleop

44.8 51%

Endgame

24.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score39.1pts

Blue projected score93.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.4
Score range: 9–124
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 164.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

57.8Season APEX38.7

5.5Auto18.1

33.4Teleop44.8

-1.2Endgame24.9

0Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	12
teleop	17	28
endgame	18	20
foul	0	0
total	42	60

Result

Final score

42 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable