Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.1 – 87.04

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570.6 ±16.4

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 161.75Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 20.34Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 107.01Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 79.4 ±42.9

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 46.35Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9981Off-Season Demo Team 9981

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.57Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 27.12Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8613, 7433, 3132

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.1 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8613, 7433, 3132

Auto

61.9 22%

Teleop

171.0 60%

Endgame

53.8 19%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6508, 9981, 10437

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6508, 9981, 10437

Auto

17.0 20%

Teleop

39.3 46%

Endgame

28.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score289.1pts

Blue projected score87pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 202.1
Score range: 55–321
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 177.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570.6Season APEX79.4

61.9Auto17

171Teleop39.3

53.8Endgame28.5

31Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	11
teleop	191	37
endgame	66	31
foul	0	0
total	314	79

Result

Final score

314 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable