Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.32 – 193.66

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 62.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.3 ±16.8

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 45.53Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX -6.93Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 53.72Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.1 ±57

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -7.45Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 191.72Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.39Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4739, 4729, 6508

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.3 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4739, 4729, 6508

Auto

4.1 5%

Teleop

55.1 65%

Endgame

25.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9988, 8613, 9984

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.7 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 8613, 9984

Auto

39.9 23%

Teleop

106.1 60%

Endgame

30.4 17%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score92.3pts

Blue projected score193.7pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.3
Score range: 62–224
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 165.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.3Season APEX322.1

4.1Auto39.9

55.1Teleop106.1

25.2Endgame30.4

87Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	42
teleop	63	56
endgame	33	12
foul	15	0
total	134	110

Result

Final score

134 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 62.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable