Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

261.29 – 354.4

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

233 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.4 ±17.5

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 23.09Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 139.13Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 99.07Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.6 ±14.9

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 75.17Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 38.65Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 240.58Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7583, 6510, 3132

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7583, 6510, 3132

Auto

54.0 20%

Teleop

149.2 57%

Endgame

60.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6497, 9147, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.4 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6497, 9147, 4613

Auto

72.8 21%

Teleop

184.3 53%

Endgame

92.6 26%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score261.3pts

Blue projected score354.4pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.1
Score range: 232–383
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 621 vs event baseline 160.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.4Season APEX534.6

54Auto72.8

149.2Teleop184.3

60.3Endgame92.6

69Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	101
teleop	160	201
endgame	29	76
foul	0	10
total	233	388

Result

Final score

233 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable