Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.98 – 118.24

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.2 ±43.2

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 34.67Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 3.19Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9981Off-Season Demo Team 9981

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.12Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.9 ±42

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 71.24Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 39.97Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.03Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7433, 6434, 9981

/ 100 compat

Projected

50 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7433, 6434, 9981

Auto

22.2 41%

Teleop

19.8 37%

Endgame

11.9 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10002, 4739, 9984

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.2 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 4739, 9984

Auto

20.9 19%

Teleop

70.8 66%

Endgame

16.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.06 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score50pts

Blue projected score118.2pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.3
Score range: 20–148
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 165.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.2Season APEX240.9

22.2Auto20.9

19.8Teleop70.8

11.9Endgame16.3

0Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	30
teleop	21	78
endgame	10	27
foul	15	15
total	74	150

Result

Final score

74 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable