Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.14 – 187.44

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

179 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 55.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.1 ±41.2

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.2Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 129.13Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 69.81Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.3 ±42.2

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 83.34Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 46.16Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 57.94Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9984, 6510, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.1 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9984, 6510, 6497

Auto

58.9 27%

Teleop

119.9 56%

Endgame

35.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10002, 9983, 7433

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10002, 9983, 7433

Auto

50.8 27%

Teleop

96.1 51%

Endgame

42.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score211.1pts

Blue projected score187.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.7
Score range: 158–240
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 159.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.1Season APEX311.3

58.9Auto50.8

119.9Teleop96.1

35.5Endgame42.7

45Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	19
teleop	56	48
endgame	46	27
foul	35	15
total	179	109

Result

Final score

179 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 55.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable