Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.97 – 121.85

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.1 ±57

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.19Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 191.68Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9975Off-Season Demo Team 9975

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 30.1Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242 ±18

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 2.75Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 78.52Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 40.58Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 8613, 9975

/ 100 compat

Projected

238 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 8613, 9975

Auto

28.4 13%

Teleop

144.5 65%

Endgame

49.3 22%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4729, 3132, 10437

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4729, 3132, 10437

Auto

36.4 30%

Teleop

51.0 43%

Endgame

32.0 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score238pts

Blue projected score121.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.1
Score range: 93–267
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 159.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.1Season APEX242

28.4Auto36.4

144.5Teleop51

49.3Endgame32

19Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	34
teleop	115	64
endgame	20	19
foul	15	0
total	200	117

Result

Final score

200 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable