Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.42 – 38.92

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.9 ±17.9

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 85Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 70.24Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 21.18Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 17.7 ±42.9

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 23.5Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -24.67Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 40.09Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5584, 4739, 9147

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.4 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5584, 4739, 9147

Auto

37.6 21%

Teleop

105.8 59%

Endgame

35.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4774, 9988, 6476

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.9 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4774, 9988, 6476

Auto

-6.5 0%

Teleop

20.0 76%

Endgame

12.9 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score176.4pts

Blue projected score38.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.5
Score range: 10–205
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 163.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.9Season APEX17.7

37.6Auto-6.5

105.8Teleop20

35.8Endgame12.9

85Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	4
teleop	82	30
endgame	5	10
foul	0	0
total	111	44

Result

Final score

111 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable