Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.17 – 55.32

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 4.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.2 ±42

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.29Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 23.86Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 244.02Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 125 ±20.8

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 1.7Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 23.64Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 29.98Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9987, 6508, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.2 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9987, 6508, 4613

Auto

33.6 12%

Teleop

174.1 61%

Endgame

77.5 27%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7583, 6434, 5331

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7583, 6434, 5331

Auto

18.6 39%

Teleop

32.1 67%

Endgame

-2.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score294.2pts

Blue projected score55.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 238.9
Score range: 26–323
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 162.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.2Season APEX125

33.6Auto18.6

174.1Teleop32.1

77.5Endgame-2.9

75Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	16
teleop	180	31
endgame	64	14
foul	0	0
total	297	61

Result

Final score

297 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 4.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable