Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.94 – 191.51

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±57.4

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -12.1Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 112.73Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 60.31Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.1 ±42.4

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 89.25Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 80.85Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9981Off-Season Demo Team 9981

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.41Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9988, 5584, 9983

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 5584, 9983

Auto

25.8 17%

Teleop

82.2 54%

Endgame

44.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3132, 4739, 9981

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3132, 4739, 9981

Auto

29.9 15%

Teleop

119.5 60%

Endgame

50.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score160.9pts

Blue projected score191.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.6
Score range: 132–221
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 163.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.2Season APEX178.1

25.8Auto29.9

82.2Teleop119.5

44Endgame50.8

175Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	34
teleop	24	78
endgame	9	32
foul	5	0
total	72	144

Result

Final score

72 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable