Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.91 – 353.61

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348 ±18.1

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 38.5Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 7.88Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 114.53Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.6 ±42.5

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 26.73Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 72.27Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 254.61Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5331, 9147, 6510

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.9 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5331, 9147, 6510

Auto

41.7 26%

Teleop

91.2 57%

Endgame

27.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6434, 9986, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.6 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6434, 9986, 4613

Auto

57.3 16%

Teleop

202.9 58%

Endgame

88.2 25%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score160.9pts

Blue projected score353.6pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -192.7
Score range: 132–383
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 158.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348Season APEX330.6

41.7Auto57.3

91.2Teleop202.9

27Endgame88.2

120Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	64
teleop	129	148
endgame	0	64
foul	5	20
total	181	296

Result

Final score

181 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable