Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.73 – 132.62

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 88.2 ±18.6

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 13.68Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 43.68Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 21.37Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.7 ±16.2

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 39.34Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 71.51Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 21.77Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4729, 6476, 5876

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4729, 6476, 5876

Auto

20.9 28%

Teleop

27.8 37%

Endgame

26.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6508, 10002, 4774

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6508, 10002, 4774

Auto

23.4 18%

Teleop

91.3 71%

Endgame

13.1 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score78.7pts

Blue projected score132.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.9
Score range: 49–163
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 164.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

88.2Season APEX253.7

20.9Auto23.4

27.8Teleop91.3

26.7Endgame13.1

99Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	5
teleop	4	87
endgame	0	31
foul	35	0
total	45	123

Result

Final score

45 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable