Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.09 – 82.89

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 116 ±57.6

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 53.33Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.94Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -14.18Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 108.5 ±43.5

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 21.52Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 7.13Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 54.24Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7433, 9984, 9988

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7433, 9984, 9988

Auto

26.8 47%

Teleop

18.7 33%

Endgame

11.0 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10437, 7583, 9987

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10437, 7583, 9987

Auto

13.3 16%

Teleop

40.1 48%

Endgame

29.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score47.1pts

Blue projected score82.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.8
Score range: 16–114
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 172.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

116Season APEX108.5

26.8Auto13.3

18.7Teleop40.1

11Endgame29.7

0Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	17
teleop	27	21
endgame	16	6
foul	0	0
total	65	44

Result

Final score

65 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable