Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.6 – 132.93

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.6 ±42

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 92.14Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 117.83Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.63Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.7 ±42.9

6434Bossley Park High School Wolfgang

Provisional

Season APEX 36.2Event APEX 13.7Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 38.7Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 80.53Rank 9Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4739, 6510, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.6 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4739, 6510, 9992

Auto

35.6 16%

Teleop

144.2 64%

Endgame

44.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6434, 9983, 3132

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.9 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6434, 9983, 3132

Auto

23.7 19%

Teleop

80.2 64%

Endgame

22.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score230.6pts

Blue projected score132.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.7
Score range: 102–262
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 171.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.6Season APEX168.7

35.6Auto23.7

144.2Teleop80.2

44.2Endgame22.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	42
teleop	127	110
endgame	38	35
foul	0	0
total	200	187

Result

Final score

200 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable