Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.63 – 82.43

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 120.6 ±17.4

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 6.74Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 21.56Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

4729EMU Robotics

Season APEX 66.9Event APEX 22.33Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.8 ±16.7

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 28.61Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 25.53Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 28.29Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9147, 4774, 4729

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9147, 4774, 4729

Auto

12.5 35%

Teleop

8.8 25%

Endgame

14.3 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6508, 5331, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.4 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6508, 5331, 6497

Auto

18.6 23%

Teleop

42.7 54%

Endgame

18.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score50.6pts

Blue projected score82.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.8
Score range: 19–114
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 179.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

120.6Season APEX267.8

12.5Auto18.6

8.8Teleop42.7

14.3Endgame18

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	27
teleop	6	70
endgame	18	21
foul	0	0
total	35	118

Result

Final score

35 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable