Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.35 – 234.94

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.1 ±57

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 64.87Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 50.81Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 165.67Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.7 ±16.9

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 115.47Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 82.83Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 36.64Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9986, 9987, 8613

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9986, 9987, 8613

Auto

48.5 18%

Teleop

161.2 59%

Endgame

64.3 23%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5584, 10002, 5876

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.9 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5584, 10002, 5876

Auto

43.5 19%

Teleop

136.9 60%

Endgame

47.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score281.4pts

Blue projected score234.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.4
Score range: 203–313
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 175.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.1Season APEX410.7

48.5Auto43.5

161.2Teleop136.9

64.3Endgame47.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	57
teleop	152	97
endgame	61	21
foul	30	0
total	263	175

Result

Final score

263 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable